My Dad recently said to me “Isn’t gambling on the golf a lottery really?”
My response “Yeah, you are right Dad, but put the time in studying the form, the way people play, the course setup and also the stats and you can eliminate the weak from most events leaving yourself less people to choose from. Take Snedeker last year at the Open Championship in 2012. I had him each way at 225/1 which at the outset I thought was superb odds for him. He was putting like a dream, hitting the ball long and although he’d never made the cut at an Open (which contributed to his high odds) I just felt his game was in too good a shape not to have a chance.
The match play is different entirely, you can shoot 5 under and still lose 3 and 1. Its just the way it is. Get hot with the putter and sink a few to really dishearten your opponent after they’ve played the hole down the fairway and you’ve smashed it out the rough and made a 40 footer.
So, who’s my money going on this weekend. Previous winners Donald, and Poulter are worth a shout. But I will spread a little and cover Schwartzal as well.
For real value and my trump card though I will be popping a bit on Henrick Stenson who is in the Sam Snead bracket and at 50/1 is real value. A proven match play man and someone playing very well at the moment.
What about Rory & Tiger you may well say…. Well, its us verses the bookies – lets see who wins.